Donald Trump won’t like what betting market is saying about 2028 Republican odds after first week – PennLive

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President Donald Trump speaks in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on Tuesday, Jan. 21, 2025, in Washington.Julia Demaree Nikhinson | The Associated Press
President Donald Trump has been busy blowing things up in the government since taking over just more than a week ago.
And, at least some polls have shown that folks are liking what they are seeing, but as part of the broader outlook and impact on what comes after Trump’s second term in office, there’s an interesting bit of info on the betting market Kalshi.
The site offers odds or percentages on elections, among other things, and it has some numbers up already on 2028. And, the day after Trump took office it has Republicans favored by a narrow margin — 50.3% to 49.7% — to win the presidential election in 2028.
The good news for Republicans is the race on that site is still very much neck-and-neck.
But, after a week of Trump, Democrats have pulled out ot a 51-49 advantage.
You can see that here.
Now, this is all speculative, it’s early, and it’s very tight, but Trump doesn’t like being listed as losing in anything so he surely wouldn’t appreciate this.
Will the Democrats’ lead hold or grow?
Well, that could very well depend on how the flurry of executive orders that Trump issued during his first week, pan out. If they turn out successful, Republicans could certainly roll in 2028. If they don’t, well the Democrats could certainly see things fall their way by a wider margin.
Kalshi updates its percentages daily so anyone interested on seeing at least what a betting market is thinking about how things are going can check that out here.
The Kalshi percentages could be more concerning for Republicans in relations to the odds that Covers.com put on the 2028 election back on Jan. 15. The site had Republicans as -150 or 60% favorites while the Democrats were +120 or 45.4% favorites.
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